Words of estimative probability Consistency in words used to estimate probability of things occurring or not occurring, i.e. WikiZero Özgür Ansiklopedi - Wikipedia Okumanın En Kolay Yolu . Kent proposed using some specific words to convey specific levels of certainty (right). significant role in efficient communication within the militar y sphere. Back in 1964, Sherman Kent tried to address the problem of misleading odds expressions in National Intelligence Estimates (NIE). (From “Words of Estimative Probability” by Sherman Kent) This means that “a serious possibility” was being interpreted as meaning anywhere from 20% to 80% in likelihood. La ĉi-suba teksto estas aŭtomata traduko de la artikolo Words of estimative probability article en la angla Vikipedio, farita per la sistemo GramTrans on 2013-11-02 05:08:49. Words of Estimative Probability “Words of Estimative Probability” by Sherman Kent of the CIA was originally published in 1964. Predicting the directionality of probability phrases from their membership functions. Definitions by the largest Idiom Dictionary. Whereas some understood there to be a 20% chance that the Soviets would invade, others put the risk as high as 80%. By . Professor Kristan J. Wheaton, Chair [This thesis presents the findings comparing the accuracy of strategic-level estimative judgments made under conditions of … Tails? Sherman Kent (December 6, 1903 – March 11, 1986), was a Yale University history professor who, during World War II and through 17 years of Cold War-era service in the Central Intelligence Agency, pioneered many of the methods of intelligence analysis.He is often described as … intelligence analysis field, and the Central Intelligence Agency’s (CIA) Center for Studies in Intelligence (CSI) first published Kent’s work on the need for precision in intelligence judgments in the 1950s. Words of Estimative Probability. Foundations of Risk Analysis: A Knowledge and Decision … Recognizing communication problems caused by imprecise probablistic statements, Kent proposed a schema for standardizing the uncertainty ranges associated with words used to communicate the likelihood of an … The middle defense had a significantly higher incidence of SRCs than all other field locations. Michael Lyden . What does estimative expression mean? To bridge the gap between them and decision makers, Kent developed a paradigm relating estimative terms to odds. It’s quite clear from this example just how useless a phrase like that can be. 4 Words of Estimative Probability. 6. Whereas some understood there to be a 20% chance that the Soviets would invade, others put the risk as high as 80%. Analysts do not often quantify their forecasts or confidence in these forecasts, aside from words of estimative probability such as “unlikely,” “likely,” “almost certainly,” and so on, which cannot distinguish that an “unlikely” event of 2 percent probability is twice as … In these results, ‘guarded’ was the third most common term . The statement from the CIA’s Greg Fennel is interesting and valuable because it elicits a neutral evidence-based response. So began the CIA's efforts to brief with more precise language, which Kent labelled 'words of estimative probability'. A selection of Kent's recently declassified writings on the occasion of the Conference on Estimating Soviet Military Power, 1950-1984, which Harvard University's Charles Warren Center for Studies in American History and the CIA's Center for the Study of Intelligence are co-sponsoring in Cambridge in December, 1994. Mater of Science in Applied Intelligence . Type A coins are fair, with probability 0.5 of heads Type B coins have probability 0.6 of heads Type C coins have probability 0.9 of heads A drawer contains one coin of each type. In 1964, Sherman Kent, a pioneer in intelligence analysis, published an important piece—“Words of Estimative Probability”—in the CIA’s in-house journal, Studies in Intelligence. The CIA has created an elaborate Words of Estimative Probability scheme. Publication Details Published September 22, 1993 In 1964 Sherman Kent, one of the first contributors to a formal discipline of intelligence analysis addressed the problem of misleading expressions of odds in National Intelligence Estimates(NIE). Estimative Probability . Words of Estimative Probability ... major formative influence on the way that the Central Intelligence Agency and Intelligence Community prepare and present National Intelligence Estimates. At one end of the spectrum are those, who call for numeric estimates. 7Debates about estimative probability and intelligence analysis are long-standing; the seminal article is by Sherman Kent, ‘Words of Estimative Probability’, Studies in Intelligence 8/4 (1964) pp.49–65. Forecasting is a vital part of strategic intelligence, offering policy makers indications about probable future conditions and aiding sound decision making. A selection of Kent's recently declassified writings on the occasion of the Conference on Estimating Soviet Military Power, 1950-1984, which Harvard University's Charles Warren Center for Studies in American History and the CIA's Center for the Study of Intelligence are co-sponsoring in Cambridge in December, 1994. These kinds of words are highly used in the intelligence field. We have used these words in our mobile app Risk*. 35. A well-chosen WEP provides a decision maker with an unambiguous estimate upon which to base a decision. Terms used to convey the likelihood of a … This is imprecise at best. Contact CIA Report Information. Pointing to the map, he made three statements: 1. Recognizing communication problems caused by imprecise probablistic statements, Kent proposed a schema for standardizing the uncertainty ranges associated with words used to communicate the likelihood of an … The story of the CIA officer who tried to measure what we mean when we say how likely something is to happen A roll of the dice – randomness, chance and probability… (2011). Words of Estimative Probability (cia.gov) 1 point by nl 3 months ago | past: The OSS Role in Ho Chi Minh’s Rise to Political Power (2018) [pdf] (cia.gov) 3 points by chordalkeyboard 3 months ago | past | 1 comment: The Kidnapping of the Lunik (1967) (cia.gov) 35. Predictably Irrational, Revised and Expanded Edition: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions Ariely, Dan. Sherman Kent (December 6, 1903 – March 11, 1986), was a Yale University history professor who, during World War II and through 17 years of Cold War-era service in the Central Intelligence Agency, pioneered many of the methods of intelligence analysis.He is often described as "the father of intelligence analysis". It's now declassified and a fascinating read. The clarity required from words of estimative probability depends on the consequences of miscommunication, as well. Wireless Encryption Protocol Words of Estimative Probability terms used by intelligence analysts to convey the likelihood of a future event Women s Equality often uses probability distributions, and the two topics are often studied together. So began the CIA's efforts to brief with more precise language, which Kent labelled 'words of estimative probability'. Mater of Science in Applied Intelligence . Each possible explanation will likely have been evaluated, using something like the CIA’s “Words of Estimative Probability” scale.
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